538 2024 Forecast. Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with fundamental factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Chance of winning undefined over time.
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. It was 50/50 before the debate and it has moved only a bit to 53/47.
This Is The Landing Page For The 2024 Silver Bulletin Presidential Election Forecast.
On thursday, june 27, president joe biden had one of the worst debates for an incumbent president in recent memory.
What Trump's Vp Pick Could Mean For 2028.
The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in november.
538 2024 Forecast Images References :
Trump Wins 50 Times Out Of 100, Read The 538 Main Webpage On Monday.
It is current as of the map timestamp.
Below Is A Chart Over Time Of Our Best Estimate Of The Most Likely Number.
Data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national.
